The Nevada Wins Political Action Committee (PAC) has done some analysis of the 2022 Nevada election results and produced some insights, summarized below. (Full disclosure: I’m President of the PAC.)
At the state level, one notable fact is that independents, non-partisans and members of small parties (here, “Others”) are now clearly the largest faction in Nevada politics, just as they are nationally. Others constitute 37.6 percent of Nevada’s 1,871,924 registered voters, with Democrats (Ds) at 32.5 percent and Republicans (Rs) at 29.9 percent. Nationally and here, the Others have been gaining for some time as Ds and Rs have held declining fractions of the registered voters.
Nationally, Others have soared to 41 percent of registration, while Ds and Rs have sunk to 28 percent each, according to the latest Gallup survey. By the slightest of margins nationwide, the Others lean to the Rs, giving them a 45 percent to 44 percent margin when voters are asked to pick a party. For over 30 years, Ds had held a slight edge in the lean. It appears that Others have become somewhat alienated from both parties and from politics in general.
However, while Others have been ascending in registration, their participation in Nevada’s 2022 election was another story. They stayed home, also suggesting alienation. Statewide, Rs turned out 72.9 percent of their registrants, Ds got 60.6 percent and Others lagged badly with 41.3 percent. Hence, Rs led the total statewide turnout of 1,067,469 voters with 38.2 percent, with Ds getting 34.5 percent and Others only 27.2 percent.
With Ds splitting the six state constitutional offices with the Rs and winning the U.S. Senate seat, it appears Nevada Others last year leaned more toward the Ds, offsetting the R’s actual turnout margins over Ds. Ds won three of four congressional races and majorities in both state legislative chambers. However, aggregate vote totals in those results are mixed, leading to the conclusion that D majorities were secured by gerrymandering, as they had control of drawing the districts after the 2020 census. Because the statewide total votes were roughly even, the seven statewide partisan races can best be explained by the relative strengths of the individual candidates.
With low registration and turnout figures, Clark County punches below its weight, but with about 72 percent of Nevada’s population, it still overwhelms the rest of the state. It accounted for 71.1 percent of state voter registrations and 63.6 percent of state turnout, while turning out only 51.1 percent of its registrants. That’s paltry compared to the 15 rural counties’ 83.7 percent turnout and Washoe County’s 62.6 percent. Clark’s R registration is weak, its D rolls are heavy and its Others total is normal for the state. However, in 2022, Clark Rs had 67.3% turnout of their voters, with Ds getting only 56.5 percent and Others a weak 35.2 percent. That salient fact made the statewide elections close.
Washoe County is returning to red, but still has relatively balanced registration with Others at 35.2 percent, Rs at 33.1 percent and Ds at 31.7 percent. Again, however, turnout was another matter, with Rs getting 39.3 percent of the total county turnout, Ds 35.3 percent and Others only 25.3 percent. With Washoe total turnout being only 28.5 percent of Clark’s, the battle is still decided mainly in the South.
The rurals are few but punch far above their weight, turning out 18.2 percent of state voters with only 12.4 percent of registrants. Of rural voters, registration was 48 percent R, and they turned out 51.1 percent of those counties’ voters. Rural Rs turned out 89 percent of their rural registrants, Ds 84.6 percent of theirs and Others 75.7 percent of theirs!
Finally, a notable result is that there is no evidence in the numbers of a significant D ballot harvesting advantage. Clark and Washoe counties each had higher percentages of their votes cast at the polls than the statewide averages for both parties and the Others.
Ron Knecht is Senior Policy Fellow at Nevada Policy Research Institute.